Enjoy the 70 degree days today and tomorrow before the big flip to Winter comes on Thursday. Squaw has been testing out the snow guns already this week on a few cold nights but there will be excellent snowmaking conditions coming along with some natural snow.
The snow should begin to fall by Thursday morning as a cold front blasts its way in, with snow levels crashing below lake level pretty quickly. Looking at this morning's forecast model runs there is still a little discrepency between some of the models. Overall they have this as a two day snowfall event Thursday & Friday, but some are showing more snow than others. This is not going to be a big storm but it will add to the snow already on the mountain from the October storm series.
Taking an average of the model runs and adding in the snowfall ratios with the cold temps, the initial initial this morning is 3-6 inches both days at the base of Squaw for a total of 6-12 inches on the ground by Saturday morning. Up top where it's colder we could see 12-18 of snow. Temperatures at night into the weekend will be down into the teens so the snow guns will be firing.
The snow should taper off on Saturday as the ridge of high pressure builds back in. It will stay cool into Sunday with highs in the 30's before we start to warm up a little into the beginning of next week. The pattern is going to try and repeat itself next week with another cold trough trying to dig down the coast the second half of the week keeping the night cold for continued snowmaking.
Looking at the long-range pattern it still looks like we could see some heavier precip chances week 3. It would be nice to get a bigger storm in here right before opening day and the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Tahoe Weather Discussion