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59º
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More Active Pattern Later in March? /

Submitted by ba March 15, 2014 - 9:41am Weather

The ridge over CA is going to break down and a ridge will form out in the Pacific around 140-150w.  It looks like it will be too close to the coast for the cold trough dropping down the West coast Thursday to dig down into CA like it looked like would happen earlier in the week.  The trough will only drop into the Pacific NW and then Southeast into the Rockies.  A system on Monday moving into the Pacific NW will also drop Southeast into the Rockies.  Both of these events will cool our temperatures back into the 50's this week after the 60's we are seeing this weekend.

By next weekend most of the models agree that a large area of low pressure will be sitting in the Pacific North/Northeast of Hawaii.  The question is what happens with the week of the 24th.  The forecast models are all over the place with their solutions.  The GFS model brings the low towards the West Coast by the 25th with several days of precip for CA heading towards the end of the month.  The Canadian and European models show the low pressure sitting off the coast week 2 and eventually falling apart before a trough drops down the West Coast with increased storminess towards the end of the month.

The overall trend on the long-range climate models and ensemble runs is that the ridge stays up near Alaska starting next weekend with increased chances of storms the later we go into the month and into the beginning of April.  

Stay tuned....BA

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