No changes yet to the forecast for next 11 days of sun that we're expecting. Let's fast forward again to the long-range and continue to monitor what is trending on the forecast models. Beyond a week to ten days we don't want to look at specific storms, but at potential patterns, or pattern shifts.
This morning I ran the GFS, European, and Canadian ensembles forecast models for potential high and low pressures over the next 2 weeks. We can see where potential ridges (dry areas) and troughs (stormy areas) may setup in the long-range. The models are in fairly good agreement in a pattern change around the 7th-10th of January.
Here is the Canadian for the beginning of the upcoming week with a the ridge still sitting over the West and a cold trough over the East.
Now watch what happens to the ridge over CA by the 10th.
and here is the GFS day 4
and then the GFS for the 8th of January, it brings in the West Coast trough 2-3 days earlier.
The GFS forecast model has shown a storm moving in around the 7th-8th for 4 runs in a row now, last 4 days. The GFS drops a cold low down the West Coast and then taps into a low North and East of Hawaii pulling in lots of moisture with the low off the coast eventually moving inland over CA.
The European forecast model has been showing a similar storm to what the GFS is showing. Today it has the cold front from the North on the 7th but doesn't have the moisture tap off the Pacific. It then brings in the low off the Pacific around the 9th/10th.
Again, this far out the accuracy of the forecast models drops significantly. The main point is that several different forecast models are showing a potential pattern shift around the 7th-10th of January. Stay tuned....BA