Beautiful weather continues through the weekend with highs in the 50's and lots of sun in Olympic Valley.
We were looking at the possibility of some storms next week, but there has been lots of waffling and back peddling on the forecast models the last few days. There is still going to be a a large ridge setting up in the Central Pacific and a deep trough in the Eastern Pacific. We want the ridge to setup at 170w at the furthest West, more preferably 150w-160w. Any further West and the trough stays just offshore and we are stuck between the trough to our West and ridge to our East. That sends all the moisture inland to our North in the Pacific NW.
Some of the forecast models show the ridge and trough pushing East by the end of next week bringing in a stormy pattern to CA. Other models keep and build the ridge over the West Coast through the 3rd week of November keeping us dry. With all of the waffling in the forecast model runs the last few days confidence continues to be low in the long-range.
There was a lot of agreement on the forecast models last weekend in a wet pattern for next week before the waffling began on Tuesday. The setup of the ridge in the Central Pacific would only have to be slightly East of where it is currently forecast in order to bring a stormy pattern next week. The PNA pattern over the Pacific is forecast to continue to be favorable for storms through the end of the month. We are right on the edge of a stormy pattern so things could change back the other way quickly. Stay tuned....BA