Lots of high clouds around yesterday and today from the front washing out over CA associated with the storm off the Pac NW coast. A stalled low off the coast and the ridge over the West will begin to retrograde West this week allowing a cold trough to drop down just to our East this weekend. This will bring us colder air and the chance for a little snow.
The forecast model runs the past couple of days have been showing the low and cold trough dropping down to our East this weekend. It looked like we may just get colder air and better snowmaking conditions. The last 2 runs of the GFS forecast model however are digging the trough further and further West. This is similar to what it started doing with the inside slider system that brought us over a foot 2 weeks ago.
Only one forecast model is showing a track this far West. It had a few inches for Tahoe on the overnight run and then 6-12 inches on the latest run this morning. With the other forecast models still keeping most the precipitation to our East we cannot bet on this scenario yet. We are only 4 days out so it will be something to watch the next few days.
The pattern looks to stay progressive next week with several storms into the Pacific NW. The forecast models suggest the storm track could lower into Northern CA towards the end of the week with a flattening ridge off the coast.
At this time of year the long-range models and climate models struggle with the change of the seasons. We saw what can happen last week as a week out every computer model agreed for several runs that the storm today would bring significant precipitation.
Stay tuned for updates on the weekend system...BA