The cold front has slowed a little overnight. As of this morning we have picked up an inch of snow overnight on the mountain but it continues to snow. Forecast models trimmed back total precip forecasts overnight. They are bringing us back closer to the original snowfall forecast of 3-6 inches.
The snow should taper off by this evening but in its wake lots of cold air will be with us into the weekend. Highs only in the 20's and lows in the single digits. Some of the lowest valleys will approach zero. With the cold air already in place it will make the next system for Friday night into Saturday a little more interesting.
The forecast models are not in agreement on how much moisture this system will bring. Taking an average of the latest model runs it looks like we could see a general 6-12 inches over the Tahoe area. We will look at this system closer tomorrow after this current storm.
Up until the latest runs this morning the forecast models were still showing high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and the jet stream cutting underneath into CA on Monday. The GFS forecast model had a pretty decent 3 day event. The forecast models have all shifted this morning now showing the high pressure shifting South off the CA coast and the jet trying to punch through but weakening as it does. That would mean light or no amounts of precip. We will continue to watch the trend on this.
By the middle of next week some forecast models have the ridge off the coast retrograding and flattening and a large area of low pressure in the Northeast Pacific. They have the jet stream aimed at CA with several storms. Others have the jet just to our North and we are on the warm side with lighter precip and higher snow levels. We will be keeping an eye on the potential stormy pattern developing a week from now.