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2 - 3 Feet of Snow by Saturday, More Next Week /

Submitted by ba February 26, 2014 - 7:56am Weather

The forecast models have done really well forecasting this pattern change from a couple of weeks ago, and have been in very good agreement and consistency in snowfall amounts the last several days.  Lots of positive things to talk about today in the short and long range.  You have to love the 5 day forecast image for 8k ft. Olympic Valley.

5 day forecast Olympic Valley

Looking at the current radar you can see that the precip associated with the first system is already pushing into CA.

current radar

We could light snowfall on the mountain as early as later this morning.  The snowfall stays light until later this evening when the cold front begins to approach the coast and heavier precip pushes in.  The heaviest snow looks to fall between 10 p.m. and early Thursday morning, with snow levels dropping to the base around midnight.  The snow showers behind the front look like they could last most of the day on Thursday before tapering off by Thursday evening.  Total snowfall looks to be around 6-9 inches at the base, and 9-12 inches on the mountain.  It's possible we see up to 15 inches on the highest peaks by Thursday evening.  

We should see a break in the precip Thursday night as the next system pushes into Southern CA.  The storm has a large area of precip that looks to push far enough North to bring another round of snowfall Friday into Friday night.  The snow showers may linger into Saturday morning but look light and should taper off by afternoon.  Snowfall amounts look similar to the first system, maybe a few inches higher.  Total snowfall by Saturday morning looks to be around 10-15 inches at the base and 15-20 inches on the mountain.  3 day totals by Saturday could be around 16-24 inches at the base, and 24-32 inches on the mountain.

It looks like we will see a break in the action later Saturday through Sunday.  The next system pushes into the West Coast Monday into Tuesday with another one on its heels for Wednesday into Thursday.  The GFS forecast model shows the storm track just to our North with light amounts of precip trying to make it into the Tahoe basin with each system.  The Canadian and European forecast models show both systems further South, and the potential for decent amounts of snowfall with each.

The forecast models are in agreement that we go into a dry pattern by the end of next week from the 7th - 10th of March.  They then show the possibility of another wet pattern from the 11th to the 17th of March.

Stay tuned....BA

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